According to a press release from the British company BP, on December 12, exports via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline reached 500 million tons. The pipeline transports oil from the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli block and condensate from the Shah Deniz field, as well as pumping oil from Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Russia. The report notes that the efficiency of the pipeline has increased from 75% to 99.9% over the 15 years since commissioning. The current throughput capacity of the BTC, which connects the Sangachal terminal on the Caspian Sea with the Ceyhan sea terminal on the Turkish Mediterranean coast, is 1.2 million barrels of oil per day.
The growth in BTC exports is one of the evidence of the growing demand for energy resources in the world. The participants of the 23rd World Petroleum Congress in Houston, which took place from December 5 to 9, 2021, spoke about the supply and demand of energy resources, and about unacceptably high prices for them. The Congress brought together over 5,000 attendees from over 70 countries and served as a catalyst for important negotiations shaping the future of energy. The Congress, which is commonly referred to as the "Olympic Games" of the oil and gas industry, discusses all aspects of the industry, from advanced technologies in oil exploration, production and processing to the role of natural gas and renewable energy sources, issues of industrial management and its impact on society, the economy and the environment. Many of the world's oil and gas market players attending this year's event expressed the opinion that oil and gas will remain indispensable for the foreseeable future and beyond.
Analysts of the largest Western banks, rating agencies and specialized companies support this forecast for the near future. Thus, the investment bank JP Morgan believes that next year the situation in the global economy will improve and energy consumption will remain high for many years. An Outlook 2022 review, entitled “Preparing for a Dynamic Cycle,” said next year could lay the foundation for “a much more dynamic economic environment,” and a dynamic economy means strong demand for oil. JP Morgan believes that crude oil prices could rise to $ 125 a barrel in 2022 and to $ 150 in 2023 due to OPEC's limited capacity to increase production.
According to analysts at S&P Global Platts, a leading independent publisher of information, benchmarks and analysis for the energy and commodity markets, while recovery in oil and gas demand has been a key topic this year, a recovery in supply will be a key topic in energy markets next year. With increased exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), increased oil and gas production from the US shale fields, and return on investment in supply from non-OPEC countries, next year supply will not only meet demand, but also exceed it, helping to increase of currently depleted energy reserves around the world, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics.
In the published forecasts, it is said that gas markets and gas prices early next year will be determined by two main factors - winter weather conditions and the supply of Russian pipeline gas to Europe. In oil, all analysts and even OPEC + expect that the surplus will begin to accumulate in the first quarter of 2022.
